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To read two earlier columns on this subject click here (part one) and here (part two). The 'Mother of all "double-or-pass" problems', below, is not named as such because it is a difficult problem (it isn't) but because the consequences of the wrong decision were so spectacular. The deal is from the Germany − Sweden match during the 1997 European Teams Championships in Montecatini (Italy). Swedish crack Peter Fredin was faced with the following problem (?) — by the way: according to the championship's Daily Bulletin the player in question was Fredin's partner Eriksson but all later publications make it clear Fredin was the culprit: | N/— | | | | | ♠ | A K 10 6 3 2
|  | | | | ♥ | 6 2
| | | | ♦ | Q J 6 4 3
| | | | ♣ | — | | |
| West | North | East | South |
|---|
| Fredin | Rath | Eriksson | Tomski | | — | 1♥ | pass | 1♠ | 2♠
| 4♠ | pass | pass
| ??
| | | |
Should West double or pass? West's 2♠ bid is one of the very few bids in an opponent's suit that is natural. It says: 'So what if South has a weakish four-card spade suit? That doesn't bother me since I have at least a good six-card spade suit and a very good hand.'
But what in heaven's name does North's 4♠ bid mean then? It cannot be natural, since West and South have at least ten spades between them. Furthermore: of course North knows West to have six or more. So despite South having bid spades first: after West's 2♠ bid spades is no longer 'NS's suit' but 'EW's suit'! So North shows shortness in spades; probably he has a void, a 0-5-4-4 distribution and a good hand. But how then could South pass North's 4♠ cue-bid? The only possible explanation: South has fallen asleep and thinks North is showing spade support. All is clear then: West should pass. NS will go down a lot, while they probably can make at least game in clubs or hearts.
In reality it turns out NS can make 7♣: | N/— | ♠ | — | | | | ♥ | A K Q 10 3
| | ♦ | A 10 9 7
| | ♣ | K Q 7 6
| | ♠ | A K 10 6 3 2
|  | ♠ | Q 9 8
| | ♥ | 6 2
| ♥ | J 7 5
| | ♦ | Q J 6 4 3
| ♦ | K 8 5 2
| | ♣ | — | ♣ | J 10 8
| | | ♠ | J 7 5 4
| | | ♥ | 9 8 4
| | ♦ | — | | ♣ | A 9 5 4 3 2
|
But South wasn't the only one who had dozed off (was it the heat?). West, Fredin, did an unbelievable thing: he didn't pass, he doubled. The penalty was huge:
| West | North | East | South |
|---|
| Fredin | Rath | Eriksson | Tomski | double??
| 4NT1
| pass
| 5♣ | pass
| 6♣ | pass | 7♣!! | pass
| pass
| pass
| |
1 Choose from the minors
North caught the lifebuoy by bidding 4NT. Still South wasn't awake, for he surely should have bid at least 6♣ instead of 5♣. Finally, after North's raise to 6♣ (no-one can accuse him of bidding overcautiously!), South rubbed the sleep from his eyes and carried out the sentence over poor Fredin (and his even poorer partner): +1440 to Germany.
Since that day a double like this is known as a 'Fredin double'. At the other table things went badly for Sweden too: | West | North | East | South |
|---|
| Holowski | Nilsland | Gotard | Fallenius | | — | 1♥ | pass | 2♥ | 4♠
| pass | pass
| double | pass
| pass
| pass
| |
North's pass over 4♠ (he left the decision to his partner, who probably even might have passed) probably is too passive (compare with the intrepid bidding of his colleague-North at the other table!). In view of West's telling message that South has little or no strength in spades, North can visualise a slam. Whether a grand slam is biddable is hard to say (preferably 7♣ of course, since 7♥ is defeated by way of a club lead).
Double dummy NS could have defeated 4♠ by three tricks (diamond lead; South can eventually make three diamond ruffs): +500 to NS. Of course (how was he to know?) North didn't lead a diamond. But when he didn't succeed in giving his partner a single diamond ruff and somehow failed to make two diamond tricks himself, he even allowed West to make his contract. Another +590, meaning 19 IMP to Germany. 2007, ten years later: the Cavendish, the annual Butler (meaning: IMP-scoring) 'big money tournament'. Preceding the play the participating pairs are auctioned. The 'owner' of the eventual winning pair pockets hundreds of thousands of dollars. The winners themselves cash in a bit less, but still a small fortune. Again Fredin plays a major part: | E/All | | | | | ♠ | K 7 6 4 3 2
|  | | | | ♥ | K 10 8 6
| | | | ♦ | 9 6 2
| | | | ♣ | —
| | |
| West | North | East | South |
|---|
| Fredin | Nyström | Moss | Bertheau | | — | —
| 2♠1 | 3♣ | | 5♠! | 6♥ | pass
| pass
| | ?? | | | |
1 Muiderberg: 5-4+ spades-minor suit, 6-9 HCP After having beaten the big drum by leaping to 5♠, Fredin faced our familiar problem: to double or not? Whether a double now is Lightner or not, is debatable (North has more or less been pushed into a slam) but that question is not important, this time. After all, West can judge that a club lead by his partner is not needed to defeat this slam: North will go down anyway. Possibly the slam will even fail by two or three tricks, since West's leap to 5♠ forced North to gamble (therefore a double probably isn't so much a Lightner double but simply 'gotcha'). A double may be very profitable, therefore. On the other hand: hearts is the only suit against which Fredin has defensive strength. Can NS escape? To...7♣ for instance? That would be ironical, if we recall the last deal. As it turned out the 1997 deal hadn't caused Fredin a severe trauma, for he doubled. How will he have felt, after this continuation: | West | North | East | South |
|---|
| Fredin | Nyström | Moss | Bertheau | | double | pass
| pass
| 7♣!! | pass
| pass
| double
| pass
| pass
| pass
| | |
And yes: +2330 to NS: | E/All | ♠ | 10 8
| | | | ♥ | A Q J 7 5 2
| | ♦ | A K Q
| | ♣ | 5 4
| | ♠ | K 7 6 4 3 2
|  | ♠ | A Q J 9 5
| | ♥ | K 10 8 6
| ♥ | 3
| | ♦ | 9 6 2
| ♦ | J 10 8 3
| | ♣ | —
| ♣ | 9 6 3
| | | ♠ | — | | | ♥ | 9 4
| | ♦ | 7 5 4
| | ♣ | A K Q J 10 8 7 2
|
Eventually Fredin − Moss finished tenth, which brought in a handsome sum. A short calculation shows however, that by passing at the crucial moment (resulting in 6♥ undoubled down one) Fredin would have cashed an extra $ 60,000.
I wonder whether more Fredin doubles are to be expected... |