| Improve on Stabell? |
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Dear Ed & Peter, John refers to the article Play along with ... of 15 March 2010. (Click here to read that article first, though that is not really necessary, since we repeat most of it in the answer, -Ed/Peter). An alternative, simpler and slightly safer line of play is to draw East's trumps first, cash ♠AK and ♥AK and lead a diamond. Reply Ed Hoogenkamp (South) Dear John, For the reader's convenience: here is the hand once more.
1 16+ HCP, conventional, forcing West leads the ♠3, third or fifth best. East contributes the ♠J and Stabell wins with ♠A. He cashes the ♣A, dropping West's ♣Q. Declarer can set up a diamond trick (or even two, if West has the ♦A) but after drawing trumps he cannot enter dummy in order to pitch (a) spade loser(s) on the good diamond(s). John, your suggestion is interesting. You have a point. Indeed, if you believe that west may have falsecarded by leading the lowest from a six-card suit, your line looks better. But, basically, this kind of analysis is way over my head. I mean, how can I concentrate that long, sitting in the sun, enjoying my sangria? Peter, on the other hand, has nothing better to do than watch the snow fall, so I expect great things from him. Un saludo desde Barcelona Reply Peter van der Linden (North) Dear John, Of course Ed is just covering his tracks with all this 'analysis being way over my head' and 'trouble in concentrating sitting in the sun, enjoying my sangria'-stuff. His first impression is correct though. But having to think it over completely dismays him, he prefers to keep away from all this little grey cells-stuff and leaves it to me. I am sorry to say but I do not agree with your suggestion. The only layout in which you win while Stabell would have gone down, is West having made that strange false lead and (!) East having the ♦A. Not a very good chance I think. But you lose while Stabell would have made his slam if West has made a perfectly systemic lead from a three-card spade suit (or an unlikely falsecard lead from a four-card suit) and has the ♦A. That lie of the cards is much more probable. I think in saying 'West has a singleton club so will almost certainly have five spades' you overestimate the probability of five spades in West. True, he will more often have five than three spades, but not very much more often. And as we have seen: Stabell wins if West has five spades and only loses if West has an unlikely six-card spade suit. So whereas Ed feels Stabell was right, I think Stabell was right! Nothing new here... En hils fa Orkanger |
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