| Losing Trick Count lecture for Bocchi and Drijver? |
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Dear Ed and Peter, I 'played along' with Bocchi and Drijver (yesterday's article, read it here) and considered what to bid with the problem hand with heart support when applying the Losing Trick Count (LTC). If I apply this on the problem hand (North):
...I conclude the following: eight losers (two spades, three hearts, two diamonds and a club). But since I have four-card heart support opposite partner's five-card suit, I can subtract one loser: seven losers. Since my partner has opened I may expect seven losers or better (according to the LTC an opening of one in a suit shows seven losers or fewer, - Ed/Peter), adding up to fourteen losers or fewer. So I can bid game at once: therefore I jump to 4♥. But the top players in question bid somewhat more carefully. Did they apply another kind of hand evaluation, or did I overlook something in applying the Losing Trick Count? Best regards, Johannes Reply Ed Hoogenkamp (South) Dear Johannes, Your explanation of the LTC theory looks correct to me. You did not mention explicitly that according to the LTC an opening in a suit shows seven losers at most (that's why Peter and I added this in italics in your text). Hidden in that fact is the reason why Drijver and Bocchi bid so timidly (in your view, that is): their partners open much more lightly. Furthermore I can add a little something to your LTC: if Peter is your partner and it looks like he is going to be declarer (despite your frantic efforts to prevent that, of course): add two losers. Un saludo desde Barcelona . Reply Peter van der Linden (North) Dear Johannes, Apart from the last paragraph Ed's reply is not bad at all. But of course it is somewhat incomplete: Ed states that players like the partners of Bocchi and Drijver open much more lightly. That is only partially correct: they only do so on relatively balanced hands. Don't think these LTC-followers of old did not open lightly! They certainly did so, but only on more unbalanced hands. The LTC was developed by the American F. Dudley Courtenay and the Englishman George Gordon Joseph Walshe. They published a book about it in 1935. The eccentric Englishman Maurice Harrison-Gray (one of the founders of Acol, World War 2 RAF-pilot and collector of tropical moths) popularised the LTC in the fifties and sixties by way of his famous columns in Country Life.
A genuine LTC-disciple opens 1♥ on this hand without blinking. After all it contains only six losers. A modern non LTC-player will open a weak two (or Multicoloured 2♦) but not 1♥!
Eight losers (if I know my LTC theory well), so an LTC-er will pass (or is a weak 1NT acceptable?). The South hand below is of the sort Ed is referring to (I have set it opposite the North hand of Bocchi/Drijver):
Admittedly, these NS hands fit atrociously. If the ♣K is wrong, South will not even make 2♥! In the LTC the South hand is not worth an opening bid (eight losers). Rightly so, since an LTC-North would, as you rightly observed, raise to 4♥ at once. Modern top players will not hesitate to open the South hand with 1♥. Their equally modern partners, like Bocchi and Drijver, therefore cannot raise to 4♥, unlike the LTC-North. This example shows that even an invitational bid can turn out to be too high. Drijver's non-invitational raise to 3♥ was certainly not unreasonable therefore. To conclude: don't think the LTC is ancient history. The method is still popular and has even found new advocates in for example Ron Klinger and Crowhurst & Kambites, to name a few. Ed is not one of them, by the way: staggering numbers like for instance fourteen losers are not his cup of tea (or should I say: glass of sangria?). En hils fra Orkanger |
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