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Stuck after a pre-empt....

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Dear Peter and Ed,

N/NS 
9 8 3 2 
K Q 3 
K J 8 2 
J 7 

WestNorthEastSouth
1pass1
31passpass??

1 Weak

What would you bid?

Thanks,
Léon Bijnsdorp

Answer Ed Hoogenkamp (South)

Dear Léon,

Dear me. Difficult question. Whatever else this hand may demonstrate, it makes abundantly clear that playing Walsh really has big advantages (using Walsh South would have responded 1over 1, skipping the diamond suit, even if it's longer than the spade suit, as long as he has fewer than 12 HCP; with 12 HCP or more he does respond 1, since in that case he is strong enough to bid spades on a higher level in the next round, which is game forcing).
OK, stop whining Ed, you have responded 1. What now? Important to know: are we talking MP- or IMP-scoring? How strong is our 1NT opening? (If you play a weak 1NT opening, a hand like this is even more difficult to bid, since partner then could have a balanced 15 count, or even a bad 16 count; with 17 HCP he wouldn't have passed 3).

I know, I'm wasting space, I'm chattering, in order to postpone answering. But when writing, it doesn't help to postpone...
If you play a strong 1NT, I surrender when playing IMPs: I pass. To me the chance of us making game is too small. Partner couldn't bid over 3, so bidding game seems too ambitious. Especially in view of my heart points. In matchpoint-play I bid 3NT if I'm desperate for points (if I'm in a good position I pass). I think that in the long run this is superior to doubling. Even if partner has four spades 3NT will not necessarily be a bad contract. The problem of doubling (which is for take-out) is that partner will have to go beyond 3NT if he doesn't have four spades, for he is extremely unlikely to have a heart guard. 

Tricky hand, that's for sure! I would like to ask you to submit the entire layout and bidding.

Un saludo desde Barcelona

Answer Peter van der Linden (North)

Dear Léon,

The fact that Ed thinks this a difficult problem, doesn't say much (Ed thinks any problem... got it?).
My problem is that Ed's right, because it is a tricky problem! (Are you still with me?)
Ed keeps on rambling about the strength of your 1NT opening but that's... well, yes: rambling. Firstly I assume you are playing a strong notrump (after all, that's rather common) and secondly partner is rather unlikely to have a balanced hand (statistically he has 1½ hearts).
Having said that, well errrr... I still don't know. My feeling tells me to bid 3NT, unlike Ed. East didn't bid over partner's 1 opening so he will have 14 HCP at most (no 1NT overcall) and usually less (neither a take-out double nor an overcall). Furthermore, after this start of the bidding and at this vulnerability West may have bid 3 on about anything (which means, admittedly, that if West has only six hearts partner's heart suit may be slightly longer than those '1½ hearts') and I hate being talked out of the bidding. But then again... should I therefore let myself be talked into 3NT (doubled...)?
There it is: every argument triggers a counter-argument. Still I'm so cocky as to choose 3NT. In doing so, I do not distinguish between MP- and IMP-play, since I think that bidding 3NT will more often turn out well than wrongly in both types of play.
If I go down, so be it. I can't stand EW sniggering if the layout turns out to be something like:

N/NSA K 10
 
 6
Q 10 6 4
K Q 10 9 2
Q 5
windroosJ 7 6 4
J 10 9 8 7 5 2
A 4
A 7 3
9 5
6
A 8 5 4 3
 9 8 3 2
 
K Q 3
K J 8 2
J 7

3NT is on ice, while 3 will often be set by only one trick (two if North plays his trump in time).
There is no need for you to submit a layout in which I would be doubled and defeated heavily. The reason? I 'm perfectly capable of constructing such layouts myself...

To conclude with: I completely agree with Ed that doubling is not the best solution. Most often partner will go beyond 3NT then (no heart guard, no four-card spades). Even if he were to have four spades, often a spade contract in his hand will turn out to be a disappointment (because of the heart lead through the KQ).
Still, a double may turn out well. Namely if North passes; he will do so if he has a balanced hand after all, without a heart guard. In that case your double and partner's pass will score well: +300 or so while you probably cannot make game). So doubling is not necessarily wrong either.

En hils fra Orkanger

 

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